تحـليل العلاقـة بين كميـة النـقود و الناتج المحـلي الإجمالي في الجزائـر دراسـة تطبيقية للفترة (1970-2008)

قدوري, طارق (2010) تحـليل العلاقـة بين كميـة النـقود و الناتج المحـلي الإجمالي في الجزائـر دراسـة تطبيقية للفترة (1970-2008). Masters thesis, Université Mohamed Khider - Biskra.

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Abstract

The study analyzed the causal relationship between the amount of money and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Algeria for the period (1970-2008) by using Granger causality technique and it had followed a methodology and a theory of descriptive and analytical standard and conducted statistical tests on the stability of the modern time series of variables of the study. The survey data have shown down nominal GDP in Algeria, from 16.9% during the period (1970-1980) to about 11.3% during the period (1980-1990), due to the drop in fuel prices as the biggest set of output in Algeria which knew then nine years of improvement in the repositioning of external finance and the increasing promotion and octagonal on the gains of macroeconomic stability. That led to the Growth rate of nominal GDP of 15.5% for the year 2008. The study also shown the increasing relative importance of demand deposits, compared with the total deposits and the evolution of the structure remains the money supply (M2) associated with enough fuel behavior sector institutions, even if it remained range of products offered by banks are very limited. The results show by testing the joint integration, a equilibrium long-term relationship between output and the amount of money with narrow and broad concepts for the period (1970-2008) and as explained in the test of causation that there is a reciprocal causal relationship between output and the amount of money two concepts so it can be said that monetary policy characterized by effectiveness in influencing real economic activity in Algeria for the period 1970-2008, and contributes two-way causal relationship between the two variables and the possibility of forecasting behavior of the gross domestic product in the light of the money supply by the supposed maker of economic policy. The second period have seen such specificity for the period 1990-2008, as seen more action from the application of economic reform and structural adjustment in the Algerian economy and results indicated that there was no integration between the amount of common sense narrow money M1 and national GDP for the period 1990-2008. While integration testing indicates that there are common at the most common equation of integration between GDP and the money supply a broad sense (M2). And there was a equilibrium short-and long-term relationship between GDP and the amount of money before the broad sense (M2) during the period 1990-2008 in Algeria. As explained in the Granger causality test on there is a causal link going from the money supply (M2) to gross domestic product during the period 1990-2008 and not vice versa. This result is consistent with monetary theory, which believes that the amount of money determine the output. So, the amount of money can be used as an instrument of monetary policy to influence real economic variables in Algeria. According to these results it is important that the Bank of Algeria in the use of monetary Policy efficiently as it helps in the growth especially that the country is heading towards an expansion in investment and diversifies sources of income.

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